By Patrick B. McGuigan | CapitolBeatOK
OKLAHOMA CITY — Presidential elections are not horse races, although many of us in journalism trend to treat them that way. Flesh and blood voters make decisions for complex and personal reasons, which explains why Red States can go strongly Republican in presidential elections while electing Democratic Senators or Representatives or governors.
The converse is true for Democrats, of course, especially in Obama-leaning states that have lately been electing Republican governors.
A group called “Resurgent Republic” has sponsored focus groups and opinion analyses this year, and is reaching some conclusions that could mean incumbent President Barack Obama will have a hard time gaining a second term. That doesn’t mean his mission is impossible, but the president’s support has weakened among a wide range of key support constituencies.
In a release detailing its “summary memo,” the “resurgent” group said, “Blue Collar Catholics overwhelmingly point to personal fiscal and pocketbook concerns in explaining their negative outlook on the direction of the country and health of the economy, according to the final memo in a series of focus group studies unveiled (April 26) as part of Resurgent Republic’s Target Voter Series. While they moderately support President Obama, these working class voters are not strongly tied to him and don’t believe his policies have made things better.”