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Is NM in play for Romney? ABQ Journal poll: Obama 45, Romney 40, Gary Johnson 7

By   /   September 9, 2012  /   No Comments

Maybe the presidential race in New Mexico is closer than some thought.

Just a couple weeks after a number of polls — including one from Rasmussen Reports – showed Barack Obama with a 14-point lead in New Mexico, the Albuquerque Journal released a poll Sunday morning (Sept. 9) showing that Republican nominee Mitt Romney is within 5 points of the lead and that former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson had 7 percent support.

“Most pundits categorized New Mexico as ‘lean Democrat,’ but we might be moving back to battleground status,” Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff was quoted saying in the Sunday edition of the newspaper.

The poll talked to 667 New Mexico voters who said they plan to vote in the general election. They were interviewed by cell phones and landlines between Sept. 3-6. The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 3.8 percent. Research and Polling Inc., of which Sanderoff is president, conducted the survey.

Which candidate would you vote for:

Obama 45%

Romney 40%

Johnson 7%

Undecided 8%

 

Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party candidate for President

One of the intriguing things about the poll is the Johnson candidacy. In the poll, he hurt Obama as well as Romney, taking 6 percent of those who called themselves Democrats and 7 percent of Republicans in the state. Johnson garnered 12 percent of the vote from Independents. But expect both parties to urge their followers who are leaning toward voting for Johnson to reject him, as his numbers could well be greater than the margin of difference between Romney and Obama in New Mexico.

In the hotly contested race for the US Senate between Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson, the Journal poll shows Heinrich up 49-42, which tracks a number of other polls conducted in recent weeks.

Click here to read the Journal story and see the results of the poll. (Sorry, subscription required to read the details).

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Since 2010, Rob Nikolewski has covered New Mexico politics and investigated fraud, waste and abuse in government. He also writes an opinion column in the Sunday editions of the Santa Fe New Mexican. Rob joined New Mexico Watchdog after 20 years in television as a sports anchor and reporter. He anchored at MSNBC, New York City, Boston, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Reno and Boise, winning three regional Emmy awards along the way. He holds a master's degree in journalism from Northwestern University, a master's in public administration from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and a bachelor's degree in journalism from Trinity University in San Antonio.

  • http://mappaquerque.com Daniel Latrimurti

    I”m in for Gary Johnson and believe he absolutely should be included in the 2012 debates which otherwise will be a total waste of time. I’m so in for Gary that I developed a mobile app for Gary that is available for Android with iPhone coming. If you’re in for Gary as well you should get the App – Download, Donate and Share. Lets get Gary on TV. Here’s the shortened URL, http://goo.gl/UkkwG

  • FSM_47

    Clinton won in 1992 because of Perot. A Libertarian vote for Johnson, no matter how well intentioned, is ultimately a vote for Obama. If you want to insure four more years of socialist, divisive, economic ineptitude than go for it.

  • http://gadabout-blogalot.com Chuck Ring

    It is surprising you went through the trouble to develop an app for someone having zero chance of a meaningful following for this election.

    I’m sorry, but he will develop as a spoiler serving to put Obama over the top in New Mexico and perhaps another state or two.

    I hope you and other Gary followers will look at the effect you will accomplish as the election draws closer. In fact I hope you will do so right now.

  • http://mappaquerque.com Daniel Latrimurti

    There’s nothing but good that can come from a viral distribution of the app…….The point of view that Gary can bring to the debate is critical and needs to be heard. There comes a point in time when the establishment has to feel the push back from people who love freedom and liberty. From people who believe in constitutionally limited government, a sane foreign policy and respect for civil rights. From people embrace the founders vision. Neither Obama, or Romney have any respect for such positions and I really can see very little difference between the two anyway! In fact today there appeared an article in the NY Times about Romney’s affinity for parts of Obama care! (http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/romney-would-keep-some-of-obamas-health-care-reform/).

    So in my mind what’s the difference? They’re both establishment funded, banker sponsored establishment candidates.

    Even if Romney wins, we’ll still be in more wars the we should. We’ll still have to tolerate the TSA groping them at the airport (and on the highway and malls) We’ll still have bloated deficits which Romney says is going to take 27 years to pay off. We’ll still have an out of control, over sized, over bearing, intrusive gorilla of a federal government. So I developed the app because I share Gary’s positions and……..maybe if we can get a large enough number of people behind GJ now and get him included in the debates, the message will resonate with more and more people and influence the dialog and perhaps the resulting policies that either of the two establishment cronies may burden us with in the future.

  • http://gadabout-blogalot.com Chuck Ring

    Your suppositions may or may not be true regarding getting him in the debates and having his performance gain the attention of enough people to matter. He may do well or he may bomb, but he will not pull enough away from the democrats or undecided independents to beat Obama

    I fear you don’t recognize the policies and future desires of the current president and their danger to our form of government. They have nothing to do with smaller government or even any form of honest government. He will win if the vote is seriously split by Johnson and perhaps one of the other Libertarians and we’ll have a long-term future of progressive-socialist government, just as we’ve had for the past four years.

    Johnson needs to gain more people and monetary support before he can be looked upon as a real contender. If he works hard for the next four years and doesn’t have to beat back Ron Paul, he might be able to make a difference.

    I respect you for your effort, but I can’t wish you good luck.

  • http://mappaquerque.com Danie Latrimurti

    I certainly am more then aware how dangerous BO is. I’m just not convinced that Romney will be much of a change. My main point is that its imperative that the political dialog be expanded to include the liberty point of view. The original founders point of view. The establishment has controlled the conversation fro way, way, way, way to long and as long as they do we’ll continue to get the same tired old recycled policies from different sides of the same political coin. More debt, more war, which ultimately means less freedom and liberty. The establishment has been controlling the conversation through the media and institutions to such an extent that a majority of people have lost touch with the message of freedom and liberty.. Including GJ in the debate can only be a good thing. Especially if he pushes Romney off the mediocre middle of the road positions he seems to want to continue to embrace and more towards a true conservative perspective. The bottom line is that MR is a weak candidate at best. Which really is the main reason the RNC is working so hard to keep GJ out of the picture. He would crush MR and BO both in the debates (my opinion), because as Ron Paul has frequently said (as an explanation as to why he drew such large crowds) – “Freedom is Popular”

  • http://gadabout-blogalot.com Chuck ring

    t

    Thanks for the discussion. At the least, the next 59? days will be interesting.

  • http://mappaquerque.com Daniel Latrimurti

    Chuck,

    Thank you for the discussion. Quite a contrast to what I get when I go to the more left leaning blogs – which are just off the hook.

    If you know anyone needing an app of who wants a mobile website send them our direction at http://mappaquerque.com.

    Maybe one day we’ll meet up and have a chance to do this in person.

    Enjoy the rest of your Sunday.

  • http://gadabout-blogalot.com Chuck Ring

    I’ll be happy to pass the word and we may have already crossed paths as I attend as many of the New Mexico Watchdog and affiliated events as possible.

  • FSM_47

    There are Five critical issues in this election 1. Judicial Appointments 2. Leadership in Executive Agencies 3. Willingness to work with a more conservative House and Senate 4. Reopening the country for business by reducing regulatory overkill. 5. Taking the Senate while keeping the House as the conservatives gain influence.

    The Socialist Democrat house-fire goes back to FDR. Reagan slowed it. Obama reignited it. Now, we must first put out the fire before it overtakes us and burns down the house. ANYTHING that inhibits this is counter-productive.