Yesterday was a sucker punch for Democrats with two of their senior Congressional Democrats choosing to retire instead of run for reelection. From Politico:

Four top Democrats — including veteran Sens. Chris Dodd ^[1] and Byron Dorgan — all prepared to pull the plug on their campaigns in a 24-hour period that began Tuesday, and in the process, offered an unnerving glimpse at the perilous election year ahead.

With Dorgan’s stunning retirement announcement Tuesday evening, Democrats are now facing their bleakest election outlook in years — and the very real possibility the party will lose its 60-40 Senate ^[2] supermajority after the November elections. On the House side, the prospect of a 20 to 30 seat loss is already looking increasingly likely.

…Dorgan’s announcement was accompanied Tuesday by Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s decision to end his floundering bid for governor, and by the revelation that both Dodd and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter would announce Wednesday that they would not seek reelection.

…The retirements of two senior Democratic senators, and the suddenly altered landscapes in Michigan and Colorado, continue a wave of Democratic bailouts that began with a burst of retirements by veteran House Democrats representing competitive districts, followed by the stunning late December party switch by freshman Alabama Rep. Parker Griffith.

Top Democrats head for the exits – Manu Raju and Josh Kraushaar – POLITICO.com ^[3]This is bad news for a Democratic Party ^[4] which wants to hold onto their control of the House and Senate. But are these defections and retirements just the tip of the iceberg? Could there be more?

There has been speculation now for the last month that Rep. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va, could possibly join his fellow retirees. It’s was an idea floated in December 2009 by the National Republican Congressional Committee, the main funder of GOP challengers to Democratic incumbents. From Hotline:

An informal list of 17 members the NRCC ^[5] believes can be convinced to step down, privately called the “Dem Retirement Assault List,” makes clear the party needs Dem incumbents to step aside if they have hopes of taking back the majority. The NRCC has taken pains to attack those lawmakers in recent weeks.
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The list includes 14 members whose districts voted for Sen. John McCain ^[6] (R-AZ) in ‘08. McCain won districts held by Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Bart Gordon (D-TN) with more than 60% of the vote, and districts held by Reps. Rick Boucher (D-VA), Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Marion Berry (D-AR), Nick Rahall ^[7] (D-WV) and Mike Ross (D-AR) with more than 55%.

GOP Pushing Dems To Retire – Hotline On Call ^[8]

Pressuring Mollohan to retire isn’t as far-fetched as it seems. As we have reported here he is still under investigation by the Department of Justice ^[9]. The DOJ in June asked the House Ethics Committee ^[10] to drop their investigation of Mollohan – something that is only done when the DOJ has a case and they don’t want the Ethics Committee accidentally leaking it.

Also, Mollohan has seven people, including one Democrat, running against him. His campaign is already in six-figure debt, partially due to paying lawyers in regards to the investigation. Now he has to spend money to fight off a Democrat, then take on a Republican.

Right now that Republican is looking to be former gubernatorial candidate David McKinley. He has the ear of the NRCC, which means support. He’s rich from running his architectural firm, so he can self-finance. Plus he garners a large amount of respect from both Republicans and Democrats. I’m not making an endorsement, just a prediction.

Mollohan is being pounded from all sides. A retirement might not happen, but it would certainly be understandable.

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GOP Chairman Doubts Republicans Can Retake House ^[11] (usnews.com) Thursday’s campaign round-up ^[12] (washingtonmonthly.com) 3 Democrats _ 2 Senators, 1 Governor _ to Retire ^[13] (abcnews.go.com)

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