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U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt is holding his lead across the state against Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in the political race to replace retiring Republican U.S. Sen. Kit Bond, according to two new polls.
U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt campaigning in St. Louis with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani last month in St. Louis
A survey of likely voters by Rasmussen Reports shows Blunt, a Republican, with 51 percent of the vote and Carnahan, a Democrat, with 43 percent.
The state-wide survey of likely voters in Missouri, released on Thursday, has 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided.
Among Blunt supporters, 77 percent are already certain of their vote, according to Rasmussen, compared to 80 percent of Carnahan’s supporters. Meanwhile, 90 percent of Republicans support Blunt and 86 percent of Democrats support Carnahan.
Blunt’s lead has dropped in the last two weeks, however. According to the survey — conducted with 750 likely voters on Oct. 5, and with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent — Blunt’s support of 52 percent in last month’s poll dropped to 51 percent in this week’s results. Carnahan also dropped, from 44 percent of likely voters supporting her to 43 percent.
Another poll, by CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp., gives Blunt a double-digit lead.
Secretary of State Robin Carnahan
The CNN/Time poll — including 1,389 registered voters and 832 likely voters, and with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.5 percent — gives Blunt 53 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for Carnahan.
None or neither garnered 4 percent and 3 percent had no opinion.
Among men polled in the Time/CNN survey, 35 percent supported Carnahan compared to 58 percent for Blunt. Among women, 44 percent would lean more toward Carnahan compared to 49 percent for Blunt.
Carnahan is doing better in St. Louis, where 51 percent support her and 43 percent support Blunt, according to the Time/CNN poll released on Wednesday. Across the state in Kansas City, however, 54 percent would likely vote for Blunt compared to 36 percent for Carnahan.
Likely voters in a higher income bracket are more likely to support Blunt, according to the poll. With likely voters making more than $50,000, 63 percent support Blunt and 33 percent Carnahan. For those making less than $50,000, 53 percent support Carnahan and 38 percent Blunt.
There is at least one poll circulating among Democrats that showed Carnahan closing the gap with Blunt.
As reported last month by Missouri Watchdog, a poll released by the Missouri Democratic Party gave each candidate 37 percent of the vote in the race for the Senate. The poll of 601 likely voters across Missouri, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent, was conducted Sept. 14 to 18 by Global Strategy Group.
By Brian R. Hook, brhook@missouriwatchdog.org, (314) 482-7944
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