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GOP Senate Poll: Stenberg ‘Surging’

By   /   February 2, 2012  /   10 Comments

A new GOP Senate poll—arguably one likely to favor Don Stenberg—finds State Treasurer Stenberg “surging” just a handful of points behind Attorney General Jon Bruning.

At the same time nearly a third of the voters are still undecided.

The poll was trotted out today by Senator Jim DeMint’s (R-SC) Senate Conservatives Fund. DeMint has not only endorsed Stenberg but has helped pour a couple hundred thousand dollars into Stenberg’s effort.

According to the poll Bruning had a 21 point lead over Stenberg in June, but that’s now down to six; State Senator Deb Fischer trails Bruning by 20 points.

Here’s the numbers:

Bruning;                 31.8%

Stenberg:               26.4%

Fischer:                  11.0%

Flynn:                       1.4%

Undecided:            29.4%

A statement from the Bruning campaign dismissed the numbers as part of a push poll featuring “negative attacks on Jon Bruning.”

Fischer tells Nebraska Watchdog she doesn’t put a lot of stock into polls this early in the primary. She then added, “the fact that neither (Bruning or Stenberg) seems to be getting even a third of the vote should be troubling to their supporters.”

The pollster, Basswood Research, says “the longer Nebraska Republicans examine the two candidates, the more Bruning’s support fades, and Stenberg’s rises.”

Reported by Joe Jordan, joe@nebraskawatchdog.org

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Joe Jordan

  • Jim Mason/Nebraska Tea Party Patriots

    This is very interesting.

    very interesting….

  • Thomas Jones

    Don still can’t even win his own push poll? What a joke. Don Stenberg will NEVER be a United States Senator.

  • Andre Borakova

    So confusing. They all seem like the same flavor to me with slight variation.

    Vanilla, French Vanilla, Vanilla Bean, Vanilla Pudding… I would be curious to get them all in a room and have them take an Intelligence test.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Build-the-Keystone-Pipeline/174894462572077 Keith Stone

    Why wasn’t the only candidate who has consistently supported the Keystone included in the poll? Spencer Zimmerman is running neck and neck with Bruning and Stenberg with 29.4% of the vote.

  • Political Scientist

    As a political scientist, I find that Stenberg’s “Poll” very disturbing. I have spent over ten years studying polls. Most polls will report there cross tabs, the questions asked, the margin of error, and the size of the sample. The cross tabs and questions asked helps outside analyst decided if the poll was legitimate or if the poll was a push poll. The margin of error tells the accuracy of the poll. In my political stats class, I was taught that a poll with a margin of error over 10% is wrong and that the poll need to be thrown out. So Stenberg’s poll margin of error could at the most be 10%. I was also taught that any poll with a margin of error over 5% or under 3%, I should seriously question. The sample size (500) is ok, but most polls have samples that are 501, 673, 1001 and so on. Stenberg only releases the results. It is clear that Stenberg has something to hide in poll numbers. If he did not, Stenberg would be shouting from the First National Tower that he is with in striking distance of Bruning. I would also like to point out that the first round of polling on Jan 11-12 showed that Bruning was ahead by 23 points, Nothing in the Nebraska Senate race landscape has happen to warrant that type of jump. Why did not Stenberg release the first poll? Because the results were not what he wanted. Stenberg should be ashamed of himself.

    Also, I was one of the lucky 500 to get a call from Basswood Research, the company that took the poll. I can say without a doubt that the poll that Stenberg took was a garden variety push poll.

    Don Stenberg should be ashamed of himself and it clearly shows that Stenberg does not follow Nebraska values but the values of Washington DC.

  • Bull

    This is a push poll. classic DeMint spin, who also said some guy in Texas was close when the Austin paper showed him down 40. They say “if you knew Jon Bruning hated sunshine and puppies, would you be more likely to vote for the patriot Don Stenberg?”. It’s not a straight up question. I’ve heard from well-placed sources that Jon’s own polls show him up more than 20, which would explain why he’s basicslly ignoring Stenberg.

  • ToucheTurtle

    Sometimes, after hearing this junk day after day, I just wish for the good old days when news was reported for ONE hour every evening at 6:00 pm, and that was it!!!!! Billions of dollars are being spent on this campaign cycle, and one has to wonder if those dollars wouldn’t be better spent in paying off the national debt so we can get our country back on track!

    If you have a bushel basket of bad apples, and that is all the apples you have, AND you are going to HAVE to pick one, is one bad apple better than another? I believe that there is a fable (?) somewhere that says if you find a bad apple in a bushel you should REMOVE it before it ruins all of the others!

    Today it appears we only have a few questionable apples with enlarging brown spots!!! Perhaps the “enny, meany, miney, mo” selection process will suffice to pick “just another Washington politician” to represent our State. WHY? Because sadly it appears we have no new candidates from the masses in our State who are willing to take the abuse of the “powers that be” to run against the Old Guard! So we get more of the same . . . “Stupid is as stupid does!”

  • http://www.nebraskansadvisorygroup.org Susan Smith

    I agree with Political Scientist. The link in the email sent out by millionaire Don Stenberg couldn’t be opened. So I googled Basswood Research and found nothing. I’ll have to contact DeMint’s office to ask for a link to the actual poll. Right now it’s sounding like more driftwood.

    Millionaire Don Stenberg and his SUPERPAC “grassroots” Mouthpieces have shown they are willing to compromise their honesty and integrity….it’s more evidence that Stenberg is willing to do anything to go along to get along, proving that he will be more of the same problem we already have in D.C.

    No thanks. I’ll volunteer, donate and vote for http://www.jonbruning.com

  • To Mr. Mason

    There is nothing interesting about this desperate attempt by Don Stenberg to mislead Nebraskans. He’s started his smear campaign – again in a desperate attempt – because he has no shot at winning. We’ve spoken three times before – we do not want Don Stenberg representing us in DC. I want someone like Jon Bruning who is going to go to DC and actually shake things up and change the direction our country is headed! We don’t need another Don Stenberg in DC – we have plenty of them. We need young, bold conservatives that are going to do more than just cast a party line vote. I want the guy who’s challenging the over reach of the federal government head on. Jon Bruning’s passion and commitment to repeal Obamacare is exactly what we need. We don’t just need conservatives in DC, we need conservative LEADERS.

  • Hal

    I took a poll this afternoon regarding my likability and humility, and I received l00% approval!